Like I said before

Tonight is a wonderful night for Governor Mitt Romney, but many GOP leaders felt he should have done better, however, winning two elections (Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary) is a good record for him. The biggest loser of this night is Senator Rick Santorum. While pundits on both sides marveled over Santorum strong finish in Iowa, having emerged from a single digit to almost defeat front runner Gov. Romney. What was obvious in Iowa's caucus is that Santorum's sudden surge couldn't be attributed to any of impressive policy nor would be be fair to say that it was hard work that paid off. The truth is that Santorum spent most of his time in Iowa and visited almost every strategic places important to the caucus, yet his poll remained in the lower single digit until the final weeks of the leading up to the Iowa caucus. He didn't do anything personally to move up in the polls.

The first few weeks of the GOP primary, candidates appeared on the scene in different ways. The first debate featured just a few faces including GovernorTim Pawlenty who had a very impressive record and who argued that he had the best policies to win the presidential election. The only female and the darling of the Tea-party - Michele Bachmann - became the party's favorite. She was active the "teaparty" movement that criticized Obama's policies. After a few appearances, Gov. Pawlenty exited and his support went to his fellow Minnesota Representative, Bachmann. In Iowa, Bachmann won the straw poll, and again, experts attributed that victory to her persistence and anti-Oabam message. They were wrong!

What Iowans wanted is someone to take on Gov. Romney. They turned their focus in the early weeks and months of the Iowa caucuses on Rick Perry who obviously possesses the record they believe that the nation needs, but after his bad performance in his first couple of debate they turned away from him. The drop in his polls benefited the most eloquent black candidate Mr. Cain. Again, pundits attributed this to Cain's 999 proposed Tax reform, which - in my view - is not the case. If his 999 was the reason for the surge, Iowans would have embraced this in the beginning because this is all that he talked about in debates and television interviews, his 999 plan.

The reshaping of the political landscape since one of the favorites GOP candidates, Herman Cain, exited, benefited the more social conservatives on the race. Cain supporters and a few last-minute deciders looked to the most likely winner, Newt Gingrich. That Newt Gingrich surge to the first and second places is the effect of this whole shakeup. I disagree with many of so-called experts that the surge was due to Gingrich's brilliant performance in various debates. In fact, it this is the case, he would have been on the top two in the first place because he exhibited leadership and clear understanding of how government works and ways to revive the United States' economy. Yet, he was polled in the lowed single digit then.

Gingrich took off and declared himself the nominee of the party - an arrogant attitude that Iowan resented. The negative attacks on Gingrich gave voters doubts that he would be best at being president of the best country in the world. His polls suddenly dropped and those who left him voted for Santorum. This is a whole different situation in New Hampshire where voters looked for the man with the experience and records to help them. The pundits were disappointed that Santorum didn't do well! Well, it is because he didn't win Iowa based on a specific plan!

This is the only election in my view that polls didn't reflect the voters' views. These polls report the support for the candidates, and there's no evidence that the polls predicted the support for a specific candidate before they occurred.