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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Gov Romney Won Florida

My prediction is spot on and still the Republican party and conservatives just don't get it; their analysis of New Gingrich's victory in South Carolina is flat-out inaccurate. They still refusing to acknowledge the fact that Christians hate Gov. Mitt Romney based on his religion, and that Gingrich's victory in South Carolina is explainable by the composition of the conservative block of that State. 
More than half of the conservative population in South Carolina are Evangelical Christians [protestants], which explains why 75% of them voted against Gov. Romney with bold statement to pollsters that they favored the candidate that shares their religious beliefs - a clear reference to Mormonism. I disagree with many analysis that Gingrich won South Carolina because of his "strong conservative message" and how he articulated that message to the BASE, based on the fact that after the final debate in South Carolina, polls didn't show any huge increase in his polls. He was leading but statistically tied with Romney. That - in my view - demonstrated one thing; his debating skills nor his message changed the minds of voters. What happened a few days later was the sudden departure of one of the conservative favorites - Rick Perry - who then endorsed Gingrich and blasted Gov. Romney. A few polls days later showed a substantial surge in Gingrich's polls, and coupled that with many Christian appeals in churches and the social media to vote for Gingrich, and Teaparty call to support Gingrich, Gov. Romney found himself behind in a State he had in his control a few weeks earlier. 
Outcome: 3/4 of South Carolina Christian voters voted against Gov. Romney in favor of Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul. After the South Carolina experience, I argued that Gingrich wouldn't win Florida. I said this because I believe he won South Carolina not because of any "specific plan, let alone a strong conservative message; he won because conservative Christians supported him. I predicted that Gingrich's victory would not translate into another decisive victory in Florida because of the composition of the voting population there. This is where my hypothesis is accurate: If Gingrich won South Carolina based on a "strong conservative message", he should have been ahead of the polls instantly in Florida, but it never happened. He had a lead among "conservative likely voters" but the decisive votes come from non-evangelicals who care more about the economy than "abortion" or "gay-marriage" etc. They overwhelmingly voted for Gov. Romney. These are Gov. Romney's supporters and strength - those outside of the so-called conservative BASE. Remember this, the base now identify themselves as conservative Christians that are - in many ways - anti-Mormon, a history of more than a hundred years.


Ridiculous Charge

The most ridiculous charge after Gov. Romney's victory came from former governor of Alaska, Gov. Sarah Palin - the darling of the Teaparty. She talked to Brett Bair of Foxnews after the result of the Florida primary came out and said that Gov. Romney spent $17 million in negative ads and won the Florida primary. The implication that Gov. Romney bought the primary undermines the hardwork Gov. Romney puts into Florida.This charge is extremely ridiculous, especially coming from someone who herself been a victim of false accusation running as the GOP VP nominee in 2008. 
The polls show that many who voted for Gov. Romney didn't like his negative ads but chose Romney [anyway] based on his credentials and record as a governor. In other words, they believe that he is the most experienced candidate to turn the US economy around. In fact, the decisive votes come from people who carefully studied these candidates' backgrounds before the election, which means that the ads didn't change their minds in any way, shape, or form. 
Furthermore, Gov. Romney had been in Florida as a candidate in 2008 and is a known figure to many in that state. Gov. Palin failed acknowledge the fact that before any other candidates arrived in Florida, Gov. Romney had been running ads and campaigning there before that. Early votes (hundreds of thousands) overwhelming favored Gov. Romney, not Gingrich, as shown tonight in the early counts. So to imply that Gov. Romney bought this victory is indeed laughable and amount to "stupidity" on the part of the sore-losers (Gingrich and his surrogates). 
Again, Floridian conservatives are made up of Northern immigrants and Floridian voters who are affected by the recession, and only a smaller portion of the voters calling themselves "evangelicals". They voted overwhelmingly for Gingrich as predicted but failed miserably to elevate him to a competitive level. 

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