Russia and China have made it clear - by way of a veto - at the Unite Nations Security Council that they are prepared to stand with Iran should rhetoric turns to war at a region already scarred by the so-called "Arabs Spring". Russia even vetoed aggressive resolutions spearheaded by United States and the European Union that aimed at crippling Syria and Iran financially. This latest developed can be interpreted as an attempt by the leaders of the Communist world to deter Western aggression against former Soviet allies in the ME. The latest time-buying tactic occurred last two weeks when UN inspectors visited Iran. These inspects left Iran without exploring the suspected nuclear sites, giving Iran more time to enriched its reactors and getting ever closer to building its nuclear weapons. The Russian government also showed solidarity with Syria by visiting Damascus in the midst of severe fighting inside Syria. While the Russian foreign minister sat down for a chit-chat with the Syrian dictator, Syrian government's assassins escalated their campaign to eradicate resistance elements in townships such as Homs - home of the resistance fighters, killing hundreds of innocent people.
USA and Israel
Today, United States and Israel successfully tested Israeli Red-R defense system a few days after Iran announced it recently upgraded long range missiles capable of hitting Israel. The IDF and US military fired a missile from inside the Mediterranean sea (simulating Iran's distance to Israel) toward Israel which was then shot down successfully by the IDF using upgraded missile defense system. And just this evening, Pentagon revealed its bunker-busting bomb had been upgraded to penetrate deeper into underground bunkers. Pentagon downplayed rumors that the upgrade was done to take out Iranian underground reactors, and also downplayed criticisms that US and Israel are ready for war. Earlier last week, US asked Israel to give diplomacy a chance. Unlike the former hawkish president, George W. Bush, Obama chooses diplomacy over military operation, but everyone knows that when it comes to to war, President Barrack Hussein Obama is not afraid to give the green-light.It is also important to note that the more diplomacy this president gives Syria the more lives will be lost, and the more sanctions this administration imposes on Iran, the danger that the Iran nuke program imposes on the ME keeps rising. Experts all agree that Israel cannot afford to let a nation that directly threatens Israel to acquire a Nuclear weapon, and that the US and Israel measure Iran's threat differently. Israel sees its own existence at extreme danger while US sees Iran as a threat not only to Israel but to world peace. However, the absence of urgency in US planning may mean that Israel will have to go alone when the right time arrives.
War - 3 fronts
Israel is surrounded by Iran's proxy armies - Hezbollah and the Hamas which means that an Iranian counter attack on Israel will be fought in three ways: Missiles from Iran over Syria, more missiles and guerrilla incursion into Northern Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas in the South. Russia will supply Iran and Syria weapons and these two nations will then arm their proxies with these weapons. On the other hand, US and NATO will arm Israel and freedom fighters inside Syria and Iran. This will lead to a world war if NATO involved directly and Russia (and perhaps China) stepped in.
To make matters worse, the leader of Hamas recently visited Tehran in an apparent show of unity between these Israeli enemies. A few years ago, Israel declared war on Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza strip and realized that the two groups had been heavily armed with weapons supplied by Iran. The well armed groups held out Israel for weeks until UNSC intervened.
Israel Looks to US
At a time when Israel lost two key allies - Turkey and Egypt, war will mean that Arabs and Muslims will turn against Israel in all directions just as they did in the 1949 and 1973 wars. It is also clear that while Israel is feeling the need to defend itself, it won't go to war without US's blessing. US is Israel's only voice in the UNSC and it had been this way since the founding of Israel. Should the Arab League and Russia push for a UNR to condemn Israel in a post Israel raid on Iran's nuclear sites, US will be expected to stand up for Israel. However, as US chooses diplomacy over arms confrontation, preparations in US and Israel may mean that the two nations are talking behind closed door.
US Presidential Election
The last thing that US President Obama wants is portraying himself as a weak president few months to his bid for a second term as president. The Republican candidates have already criticized Obama of not standing up for Israel. Israeli supports in US Congress on both Houses is strong and Obama knows that his decision to defend Israel will be crucial to his foreign policy credentials. His rivals have promised to stand up for Israel against Iran. They also criticized President Obama of his criticism of Israel's settlements in Jerusalem and also for his call for Israel to return to the 1967 borders. President Obama may give Israel the green-light to just appease his Jewish support in America and in Congress.
Recently the head of CENTCOM said Israel is more likely to hit Iran between April and June 2012 - four to six months from now. And judging by words of the former special force commander, former Israeli Prime Minister and now Defense Minister Ehud Barak, war is imminent. Now its not a matter of "if" but "when" is the right time for Israel to strike.
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Latest: Israel blamed Iran for the attempt assassination of Israel's diplomats in India and Georgia adding fuel to tension between the two countries. Hezbollah was another org implicated in the attack.
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