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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Two Biggest Mistakes in US Approaches to Afghanistan

NATGEO (National Geography) is one of my favorite channels simply because of the variety of shows and documentaries it puts out in the evenings. One evening NATGEO featured a documentary about the US hunt for the father and financier of Al Qeada, Osama Bin Laden. Because I knew little about the US efforts to kill the mastermind of 9/11, I decided to watch it to the end. It started out with the US plans to pursue the 9/11 culprits in a "kill-or-capture" mission dubbed the "War Against Terror". The documentary centers on a few CIA officers sent ahead of the US invasion of Afghanistan to secure intelligent agents on the ground to assist in providing targets for US bombers. According to Tom Frank, head of Centcom (Central command), the plan was to weaken Taliban and Al Qeada from relentless air assault before ground troops moved in.
The CIA was fortunate to have the Northern Alliance, a group of Northern tribes opposed to the Taliban rule and who had waged and managed to hold on to their territory since Soviet pulled out. The CIA officers were paying them millions of dollars to look out, pick out targets and assist the air raids. But what struck me as I watched the documentary was the comment made by the CIA officer when recounting his meeting with some of his Northern Alliance comrades, those who he helped during the anti-Soviet war. They told the CIA officers that they hope America was there to stay and not betraying them like they did back in the late 1980s when the Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan. US left Afghanistan to utter chaos.

Obama's Policy on Afghanistan is Flawed
Two of the biggest errors of the US actions in the Middle East after the collapse of the Soviet empire, in my view, were its abandonment of Afghanistan and its reluctance to pursue Saddam Hussein at the end of the "Operation Desert Storm" (1991). It is a known historical fact that every time the US left something incomplete, it comes back to hit its homeland.
First, the US used Afghanistan as an apparent retaliation for the USSR support for North Vietnam. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan relied heavily on the use of its newly produced helicopters and tanks. The whole Arab nations sent fighters to Afghanistan, but as time passed, it turned out to be a burial site for brave Arab Muslims. It takes a single US politician to convince US government to supply the Mujaheddin fighters with modern technologies that led to the Soviet withdraw. US quickly left Afghanistan to radical Muslims who quickly turned Afghanistan into a hardcore Islamic state ruled by thugs most of whom had fought against the Soviets.
After decades of Taliban rule, Afghanistan had created one of largest refugee camps, highest crime rate against women, and pretty much operated under Islamic Law. Thousands of people died, many were tortured, women were murdered, many were driven out of their homes. Taliban became extremely vicious.
This is the country where Bin Laden found as a home after successfully attacking US embassies across Africa and the USS Cole. The Al Qeada network flourished in Afghanistan until they brought the war to the US homeland, now they are back to do complete what they had left in the late 80s. Many analysts criticized US of waging wars on mere expediency and to many Afghans, the US and NATO presence there may be a repeat of the late 80s' experience.
Secondly, in 1991, US led a coalition of nations against Saddam Hussein who invaded the sovereign state of Kuwait. The US showcased some of the most advanced weapons including its Stealth fighter planes and smart bombs, and in matter of weeks drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. Having refused to sign a peace-deal, US special forces pursued Iraqi forces deep into Baghdad. Finally, Hussein surrendered and signed a peace-deal. US forces were told to stop its assault on Iraq and returned to Kuwait. Years later, Saddam had sponsored more deadly attacks on US citizens than any known ME leader, including the attempt assassination of President Bush senior. And according to European sources, Saddam met some of the 9/11 hijackers before arriving in the US. Whatever they shared during their clandestine meetings remained a mystery. However, sources indicated that Hussein also gave more money to Palestinians suicide bombers than any other ME leaders. These evidence were uncovered by the IDF in Gaza.
In 2003, US finally saw the necessity of toppling Hussein. The US and UK led a coalition of so-called "willing nations" and overthrew Hussein, installed a new democratic government and left. To this day, the Iraqi government can be classified as extremely fluid and fragile. It can collapse anytime and the military dissolved into the population and drive up a more violent civil ethnic violence bigger than any in the history of the ME.

OBAMA Doesn't Understand the Danger; in many ways Sympathized with Arabs
Obama: Sure, I'll meet with Castro, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, etc

Before taking office, President Barrack Hussein Obama promised to open up diplomatic dialogue between US and Iran. Despite Iran's open defiance of the UN Resolutions and sanctions, Obama still believe solutions can be reached with the participation of Iran. Even when Mahmoud Amadinejad called 9/11 a US inside job, and calls for the eradication of the Jews State, Obama still holding out hope.
Its been two years and a half since Obama took office and the indicators of Iran turning moderate aren't there, which means that Obama's notion is flawed. Iran doesn't need Obama to survive such as other tiny ME nations that still depending on US military for their survival. Iran is still the biggest force in the region.
Just recently, the US allowed Taliban and Iran to attend negotiation for a US exit strategy, despite the fact that US forces intercepted a shipment of weapons to Taliban marked as foods. This is a very dangerous maneuver for a the US government and one that has the potential to destroy, yet again, the trust of anti-Taliban forces and pro-democratic movements inside Afghanistan. This is also taken place a couple of weeks since intelligence revealed Pakistan intelligence agency had been encouraging Taliban to fight keep fighting.
The idea that Iran should play a major part in assisting Afghanistan when US withdraws is perhaps the most extremely controversial and highly dangerous move coming out of the Obama administration. But this is Liberalism at best, pretending that people would love them once they are opened up to negotiation. That is flawed as noted by Tony Blair.
Even with Iran's recent visit to South Lebanon, a move viewed by Israel and US as provocative, Obama and his government still moves ahead with the withdrawal plan for the Afghan war. It is appalling how the Obama administration approach Iran and Afghanistan; it constantly denying the reality that Iran is looking to play a major role in the ME and the fact that it continually threatening Israel. It keeps pretending that Iran is not a threat to the world.
The biggest mistake the US government would do is leaving at a time when Afghanistan barely holding on. It is appalling to let Iran into the discussion table despite the fact that it supplied Shi'ite insurgents in Iraq, sponsoring Syria and Hezbollah who killed innocent citizens. Despite the fact that Iran's shipment to the Taliban was intercepted by US soldiers, US let them to in to negotiate with the Afghanistan government.
Afghanistan is a country that is extremely backward, and susceptible to civil war. This is a breeding ground for terrorism and Obama is going to pull America and NATO out simply for political reasons.

Summary
The two biggest mistakes;
1. Opening up negotiation with stubborn Iran
2. Dateline to withdraw from Afghanistan amidst violence

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